Risk Management for Dam Safety

“The term ‘risk,’ when used in the context of dam safety, is comprised of three parts: (1) the likelihood of occurrence of a load (e.g., flood earthquake, etc.), (2) the likelihood of an adverse structural response (e.g., dam failure, damaging spillway discharge, etc.), and (3) the magnitude of the consequences resulting from that adverse event (e.g., life loss, economic damages, environmental damages, etc.).” ^[1]

According to the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), risk is defined as “the measure of the probability and severity of undesirable consequences”.^[2] Risk is further defined by the USACE as the product of the frequency of an event, the probability of occurrence of that event, and the consequences of that event. In recent years, risk has become a major factor in identifying where resources should be expended to achieve the highest increase in public safety. The process of using risk in this manner is known as Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) and includes an entire process of identifying and analyzing potential failure modes to reduce the overall risk of a dam failure.