Risk Estimation

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"A qualitative or quantitative procedure that identifies potential modes of failure and the conditions and events that must take place for failure to occur. A quantitative risk analysis yields a numerical estimate of the risk of adverse consequence, multiplying the probability of load times the probability of dam failure given the load times the magnitude of adverse consequence given dam failure."

“Risk estimates are inherently uncertain, with the nature and amount of uncertainty varying from dam to dam. It is important to acknowledge the uncertainty and put it into the proper context. The following aspects of uncertainty in risk estimates and the dam safety case should be discussed: what is certain; what is likely, but not certain; what is possible, but not likely.”

"Numerical risk estimates by themselves provide an incomplete basis for dam safety decision making. There are a number of factors that should also be considered, including the uncertainty and confidence in the risk estimates. The dam safety case provides supporting justification for the numerical risk estimates. A well-constructed dam safety case should include a discussion that supports and supplements the numerical risk estimates."

The following should be considered in estimating risk:

• Loading Conditions
• Structural Response
• Breach Estimation
• Consequence Estimation

Trainings

On-Demand Webinar: Loss of Life Consequence Assessment for Dam Failure Scenarios

Citations:

Revision ID: 5069
Revision Date: 12/08/2022