ASDSO Dam Safety Toolbox

Risk Analysis: Difference between revisions

From ASDSO Dam Safety Toolbox
Jump to: navigation, search
(Created page with "__NOTOC__ ---- <!-- Delete any sections that are not necessary to your topic. Add pictures/sections as needed --> [Paragraph here] '''Potential Failure Modes Analysis''' “Potential failure modes are mechanisms that can result in an uncontrolled release of the reservoir. A potential failure modes analysis is a critical first step in conducting a risk analysis. It requires a detailed records review and a review of dam performance (e.g., instrumentation, visual, and ope...")
 
No edit summary
 
(6 intermediate revisions by 3 users not shown)
Line 1: Line 1:
__NOTOC__
__NOTOC__
[[Category:Risk Management for Dams]]
----
----
<!-- Delete any sections that are not necessary to your topic. Add pictures/sections as needed -->
<!-- Delete any sections that are not necessary to your topic. Add pictures/sections as needed -->
[Paragraph here]
The following is a list of typical components of risk analysis:
* [[Potential Failure Modes Analysis]]
* [[Risk Estimation]]
* [[Risk Communication]]


'''Potential Failure Modes Analysis'''
A critical aspect of any [[engineering]] analysis is communication. There are a variety of risk analysis approaches and methodologies, and it is important to owners, consultants, and regulators that clear communication is integrated in the process. General guidance and recommendations regarding both pre- and post-modeling communication are provided on this page: [[Modeling Communication]].


“Potential failure modes are mechanisms that can result in an uncontrolled release of the reservoir. A potential failure modes analysis is a critical first step in conducting a risk analysis. It requires a detailed records review and a review of dam performance (e.g., instrumentation, visual, and operational). Information is also needed on flood and earthquake frequencies in order to consider hydrologic and seismic potential failure modes. The perspective of local office personnel, including dam operators, inspectors, and dam tenders, is invaluable. The goal of a potential failure modes analysis is to: (1) identify the site-specific credible potential failure modes for a given dam; (2) provide complete descriptions of the potential failure modes, including the initiating event and the progression of steps leading to an uncontrolled release of the reservoir; and (3) provide a general description of the magnitude of the breach, including identifying and recording the factors that make the potential failure more likely and less likely and the consequences more severe or less severe”.<ref name="P-1025">[[Federal Guidelines for Dam Safety Risk Management (FEMA P-1025) | FEMA P-1025 Federal Guidelines for Dam Safety Risk Management, FEMA, 2015]]</ref>
<noautolinks>==Best Practices Resources==</noautolinks>
{{Document Icon}} [[Best Practices in Dam and Levee Safety Risk Analysis|Best Practices in Dam and Levee Safety Risk Analysis, USACE/USBR]]
{{Document Icon}} [[Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) Interim Policy Guidance|Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) Interim Policy Guidance, FERC]]
{{Document Icon}} [[Federal Guidelines for Dam Safety Risk Management (FEMA P-1025) | Federal Guidelines for Dam Safety Risk Management, FEMA]]
{{Document Icon}} [[Design Standards No. 14: Appurtenant Structures for Dams (Ch. 2: Hydrologic Considerations) | Design Standards No. 14: Appurtenant Structures for Dams (Ch. 2: Hydrologic Considerations), USBR]]


“It is recognized that large controlled flood releases may result in significant downstream consequences, including loss of life, but these events have typically not been included as potential failure modes because they result from intended operation of the dam. Large controlled releases that may result in serious downstream consequences are typically made to prevent even greater consequences that would occur from dam failure. Agencies may elect to consider the risk from large controlled releases, and risk communications should occur when large releases are made”.<ref name="FGDSRM">[[Federal Guidelines for Dam Safety Risk Management | Federal Guidelines for Dam Safety Risk Management, FEMA, 2015]]</ref>
==Trainings==
 
{{Video Icon}} [[On-Demand Webinar: How to Conduct a Successful PFMA - Lessons Learned from Past Successes and Failures]]
'''Risk Estimation'''
{{Video Icon}} [[On-Demand Webinar: Event Tree Principles and Applications for Dam Safety Risk Assessment]]
 
{{Video Icon}} [[On-Demand Webinar: Application of PFMA in Dam Safety]]
*Loading Conditions
 
:[Paragraph here]
 
*Breach Estimation
 
:[Paragraph here]
 
*Structural Response


:[Paragraph here]
*Consequence Estimation
:[Paragraph here]
'''Risk Communication'''
“Communication is important in all aspects of dam safety within an organization, with the public, and with the specific owners or stakeholders of a project. However, communication about the work associated with risk is particularly important because of the fears, sentiments, perceptions, and emotions surrounding the work risk and the use of risk analysis in engineering” (Federal Guidelines for Dam Safety Risk Management, FEMA, 2015).<ref name="FGDSRM" />
“Integrate risk communications early in the process of responding to dam safety issues. This is beneficial because by including individuals in the process and giving them the opportunity to provide input, and possibly, influence decisions, they are more likely to accept the decisions being made. Provide context for risk communications (i.e., compare with other risks). This is especially important for the public who may have trouble identifying the significance of dam safety risks”.<ref name="FGDSRM" />
“Risk estimates are inherently uncertain, with the nature and amount of uncertainty varying from dam to dam. It is important to acknowledge the uncertainty and put it into the proper context. The following aspects of uncertainty in risk estimates and the dam safety case should be discussed: what is certain; what is likely, but not certain; what is possible, but not likely”.<ref name="FGDSRM" />
==Examples==
{{Website Icon}}
==Best Practices Resources==
{{Document Icon}} [[Federal Guidelines for Dam Safety Risk Management (FEMA P-1025)]]
{{Document Icon}} [[Federal Guidelines for Dam Safety Risk Management]]
==Trainings==
{{Video Icon}} [[On-Demand Webinar: The History of Dam Safety Governance in the US Including Risk Analysis]]


<!-- For information on notation for in text citations visit https://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Help:Cite  Or simply enclose the citation as shown <ref> citation </ref> in the location of the in text mention. Citations will automatically populate below-->
<!-- For information on notation for in text citations visit https://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Help:Cite  Or simply enclose the citation as shown <ref> citation </ref> in the location of the in text mention. Citations will automatically populate below-->

Latest revision as of 19:54, 27 August 2024

The following is a list of typical components of risk analysis:

A critical aspect of any engineering analysis is communication. There are a variety of risk analysis approaches and methodologies, and it is important to owners, consultants, and regulators that clear communication is integrated in the process. General guidance and recommendations regarding both pre- and post-modeling communication are provided on this page: Modeling Communication.

Best Practices Resources

Best Practices in Dam and Levee Safety Risk Analysis, USACE/USBR

Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) Interim Policy Guidance, FERC

Federal Guidelines for Dam Safety Risk Management, FEMA

Design Standards No. 14: Appurtenant Structures for Dams (Ch. 2: Hydrologic Considerations), USBR

Trainings

On-Demand Webinar: How to Conduct a Successful PFMA - Lessons Learned from Past Successes and Failures

On-Demand Webinar: Event Tree Principles and Applications for Dam Safety Risk Assessment

On-Demand Webinar: Application of PFMA in Dam Safety



Citations:



Revision ID: 8042
Revision Date: 08/27/2024

Retrieved from "https://damtoolbox.org/index.php?title=Risk_Analysis&oldid=8042"